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NEC's Best Bets: 11/14/21

After a one-day reprieve, I'm back with NEC's Best Bets.

Friday was a rough one; I was all-in on the Bryant Bulldogs, assuming that there was no way Jared Grasso would keep Peter Kiss out of the lineup against URI. Well, I was wrong (clearly). At least I was able to grab the 'under' once I saw Kiss wasn't in the starting '5', but that doesn't count here.

Last night, Wagner grabbed the best win for the conference in 21-22; a 58-44 win at VCU, which came into the game ranked #120 at Kenpom. There will be a lot of Wagner talk in tomorrow's "Mid-Range Jumper".

A reminder; this is not gambling or financial advice, and I'm not suggesting anyone copy me. These are my bets, and my bets only.

Season Record: 1-3

Today's bet: Central Connecticut at Brown, under 143.5

On Friday night, Brown went down to Chapel Hill and played UNC close, ultimately falling 94-87 in a 71 possession game; yes, they scored 1.23ppp against an ACC team. So naturally, I'm taking the under here.

Historically speaking, head coach Mike Martin has been more defense than offense in his 9 years at the helm; in fact, the Bears' defense has been ranked higher than their offense in each year since 2018. Check it:

Also consider this; in their season opening win over Salve Regina, Brown scored just 1.20ppp.

On the flip side, new CCSU coach Patrick Sellers has preached defense to anyone who will listen; he understands the quickest way to improve as a program is to commit to improving on the defensive end, and he also (likely) knows he doesn't have the offensive fire-power to contend in the NEC this season. You can go ahead and ignore Central's season-opening loss to UConn on Tuesday night; they were clearly out-manned, and were without two rotation players (Hegel Augustin and Jayden Brown).

Kenpom and Torvik have the O/U at 143 and 141, respectively; neither system is buying a Brown offensive-breakout, and neither system has the CCSU coaching change baked in. I'm not sure the Blue Devils can win this one, but I'd expect them to try to slow down the pace and defend better than the Central teams of the past five years.

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