NEC's Best Bets: 11/15/21
Taking the under 143.5 in the Brown-CCSU game yesterday felt like easy money; while some saw Brown putting up 87 on North Carolina as a sign that this Bears team was suddenly offensive-minded, the analytics new that was a 1-game anomaly.
A 1-game slate tonight; Bryant at Clemson. I don't love the line, but I have to bet it. Them's the rules.
A reminder; this is not gambling or financial advice, and I'm not suggesting anyone copy me. These are my bets, and my bets only.
Season Record: 2-3
Today's bet: Bryant at Clemson (-11.5)
I don't particularly like betting against NEC teams, and quite frankly, I'll be rooting like hell for the Bulldogs to pull of the win tonight.
Despite Peter Kiss likely returning tonight after a 2-game absence, the official line is smaller than what the projection systems believe; Kenpom has Clemson -15, while Torvik, which is more bullish on Bryant, has the Tigers -12.
While I was all ready to take the points, what gave me pause is the fact that Brad Brownell's group likes to apply pressure defense and force turnovers; both Presbyterian and Wofford turned it over on more than 19.5% of their possessions.
Yeah, Bryant took care of the ball at URI (11 turnovers, 14.7%), but that's not Rhody's jam; David Cox is more of a "take away the paint" kind of defensive coach. As I've written frequently; I'm still not sold on Bryant's ball handling situation, and its' two "point men" Tyler Brelsford and Luis Hurtado combined for 6 turnovers last Friday. I also worry that Clemson's front line of 6'8" Hunter Tyson and 6'10" 240 lb. P.J. Hall could cause the Bryant bigs problems, especially if Greg Calixte, who missed the URI game with the flu, isn't back.
I do think Bryant keeps this one close, it won't be a blowout, but I'll give the points and take Clemson to cover.