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NEC's Best Bets: 11/22/21

Until further notice, I will always ,at least consider, taking the 'under' when Merrimack is playing. Through five games, the Warriors have hit the 'under' every time, by no fewer than 4.5 points. I went under the 123.5 at Virginia Tech last night and hit it with ease (the total was 115). Tomorrow I won't be able to bet Merrimack-Hartford (I'm in CT, after all), but that doesn't mean you can't!

Also yesterday; I really wanted to take Bryant -8.5 against Holy Cross, but I didn't know which Bulldogs team would show up. Turns out I should have; Bryant won rather handily 78-62 thanks to 35 Peter Kiss points.

Two games on tap today; Sacred Heart heads to Stony Brook to face ol' friend Jahlil Jenkins and the Seawolves. SBU is favored by 6.5 points, and that kind of feels right? Kenpom has SBU -7, though Aaron Clarke is healthy which means the projection systems may be underselling the Pios a bit.

Out in Ohio, the Mount continues its difficult schedule taking on the Bobcats. Ohio U is really good.

A reminder; this is not gambling or financial advice, and I'm not suggesting anyone copy me. These are my bets, and my bets only.

Season Record: 7-5

Today's Bet: Mount St. Mary's at Ohio (-14.5)

I get that Ohio doesn't have the status of schools like Villanova, Kentucky, and to a lesser extent St. Joseph's, but that doesn't mean they aren't a really good team. Jeff Boals' group is 3-1 with a notable win over Belmont (#61 at Kenpom), and their lone loss was a 77-59 defeat at Kentucky. But don't let the final score fool you; Ohio led 22-14 halfway through the 1st half, and were in that ballgame for 30 minutes.

The thing that concerns me for the Mount is that Ohio can really spread you out; the starting frontcourt of 6'8" Ben Vander Plas and 6'8" Jason Carter are shooting a combined 16 of 42 from three. And that opens things up for sophomore PG Mark Sears, who is averaging a cool 17 points and 4 assists per game, including a 60% eFG%.

Mount St. Mary's has struggled against teams that can match their size up front, and have only covered once all season; last Friday night in the overtime win at Robert Morris. But don't forget; the Mount was down big in the 2nd half and needed a last second three-pointer to force overtime. The Mount has fallen 17-spots at Kenpom, while Ohio has risen 15 spots to #100. Add in the fact that Ohio is at home after a blowout loss, I expect big things from the Bobcats.

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